NIFTY HISTORY/HISTORY OF NIFTY/ 20YEARS HISTORY OF NIFTY

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I looked at 20 years of Nifty monthly returns data. Here are some interesting observations: Index value on 1st Jan 2003: 1,100 Index value on 26th Aug 2022: 17,559 Absolute Return: 1,500% CAGR: 15.1% Total no of months: 236 (from Jan 2003 to Aug 2022) no. of positive months: 142/236 or 60% no. of negative months: 94/236 or 40% July & Dec were the best months July had 16 positive months out of 20 and Dec had 15 positive months out of 19 Jan & Feb were the worst months 13 negative months out of 20 in January and 10 negative months of 20 in February 2006 was the evergreen year for Indian markets when only 1 month out of 12 was negative and 11 months were positive Whereas 2011 was the year of gloom where 9 months ended in negative and only 3 were positive On average, in any given calendar year 7.2 months were positive, and 4.8 months were negative The longest streak of positive monthly returns was from: May2003 - Dec2003: 8 months, +100% return Jun2006 - Jan2007: 8 months, +33% return May2014 - Nov2014: 7 months, +28% return However, the longest streak of negative monthly returns has NEVER been more than 3 months The highest monthly return was +28.1% in May 2009 and the lowest monthly return was -26.4% in Oct 2008 there were 60 months in total when the Index was up by more than 5%, but only 25 months when it was down by more than 5% Similarly, there were 14 months when Index was up by more than 10% but only 8 months when it was down by more than 10% If you had missed these 14 months, your absolute return would be only 150% instead of 1500%, CAGR of 4.8% (less than the Bank FD rate) Conclusion: 1. Markets go up more often than they go down 2. 90% of market returns came in just 6% of the time (14/236 months) Lesson: RIDE THE VOLATILITY & STAY INVESTED

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